Turning progress into permanence: What the latest social care workforce data means for us at Qualis Solutions
The recent report from Skills for Care offers a fresh vantage point on the state of adult social care in England — the scale, the trends, and the pressures that remain. As Qualis Solutions partners with providers and commissioners across the sector, it’s vital we look beyond the headline numbers to understand what they mean for workforce strategy, service quality, and sustainability.
This blog explores what stands out in the data, what it suggests for action, and the questions we should all be asking.
What the data tells us
The latest figures paint a picture of gradual recovery, but one built on uneven ground. While vacancies and turnover have improved, underlying weaknesses in training, pay, and domestic recruitment remain.
Growth yet fragility
The sector recorded a 2.2% increase in total posts in 2024–25, and the number of filled roles rose by 3.4%.
Vacancy rates have returned to pre-Covid levels at around 7%.
Despite these gains, the gap is still significant: the vacancy rate remains roughly three times that of the wider economy.
Recruitment and retention challenges
The number of British-nationality workers in the sector fell by around 30,000 in 2024–25.
International recruitment has dropped sharply, from about 105,000 new recruits in 2023–24 to around 50,000 in 2024–25.
Turnover in the independent sector decreased from approximately 25.8% to 24.7%, but remains high; roughly one in four care workers still leave their job each year.
Skills and qualifications
The proportion of care and support workers with a Level 2 qualification or above fell to 38% (down from 41% the previous year).
Skills for Care found that staff without key supporting conditions, qualification, training, decent contract, pay near the local average, full-time work, have a turnover rate of 42.2%, compared to 14.4% for those who do.
Future demand
The report projects that around 470,000 new posts will be needed by 2040, an increase of around 27%, to meet growing demand linked to the ageing population.
Yet investment in training has declined. A £115 million cut to adult social care training funding in 2024–25 has coincided with the fall in qualification levels.
Working conditions
A notable proportion of employers (62%) do not offer enhanced sick pay, and 57% do not offer enhanced pension contributions beyond the minimum.
The data suggests that beyond pay, the overall offer to the workforce is critical: development, contract type, working hours and role progression all make a difference.
Why this matters for Qualis Solutions and our sector partners
As a consultancy working with social care providers and commissioners, these findings underline several key priorities.
1. Workforce strategy is business strategy
The workforce numbers — posts, filled roles, vacancies — directly affect capacity to deliver care, respond to demand and maintain quality. This isn’t just an HR issue; it’s a question of operational resilience and strategic direction.
2. Retention and stability are as important as recruitment
Recruiting more staff is only half the story. The data shows that staff who are better supported through qualifications, training, reasonable contracts and fair pay are far less likely to leave. Investing in conditions builds stability and quality.
3. Skills and growth matter
Falling qualification levels are a clear warning sign. If staff do not feel competent, valued or able to progress, retention will suffer and so will care quality. Clear career pathways, training investment and professional development must remain priorities.
4. Diversity and dependency: the workforce mix is shifting
The fall in British-nationality workers and the reduction in international recruitment expose a growing vulnerability. Making domestic recruitment more viable means improving how we present and reward social care roles. They need to be seen as respected, professional, and worth building a career in.
5. Demand is rising and pressure will grow
With nearly half a million additional posts projected by 2040, doing more of the same will not be enough. Innovation, service redesign, technology use and new workforce models, including flexible roles and recruitment from non-traditional backgrounds, must all be part of the solution.
6. Working conditions and contractual norms are under scrutiny
The data on sick pay, pensions and contracts suggests the sector still lags behind others. With competition for workers intensifying, this is both a workforce and regulatory risk, particularly under the CQC’s single assessment framework which places increasing emphasis on leadership and staff wellbeing.
Questions for the sector — and how Qualis Solutions can help explore them
Insight is only useful if it sparks the right conversations. These are some of the questions we think every provider and commissioner should be asking.
How do we make social care roles more attractive to the domestic workforce?
What is our employer brand within our local area?
Are entry routes and career paths clear and accessible?
Do our contracts, pay and training offers compete with other sectors such as retail or logistics?
What is our strategy for the five factors that reduce turnover?
Are staff paid within 30% of the local authority average?
Do we avoid over-reliance on zero-hours contracts?
Are we investing in training and qualifications?
Do we offer full-time or flexible roles that suit staff preferences?
If one of these areas is weak, what impact might that have on retention and cost?
How are we managing the skills gap and qualification decline?
With only 38% of care and support workers holding a Level 2 qualification, where does that leave us?
Do we have realistic plans and budgets for training and upskilling?
Are we tracking which roles are hardest to recruit and acting proactively?
How resilient is our workforce pipeline?
Do we rely heavily on international recruitment, and what happens if that pipeline contracts further?
Are we tapping into other recruitment streams such as older workers, returners, apprentices or volunteers moving into paid roles?
How do we support progression and leadership pathways?
What innovations in service design and workforce model can we explore?
Could hybrid or multi-skilled roles help bridge staffing gaps and improve flexibility?
Are there opportunities for part-time work, job shares or technology-enabled care roles?
Can we work with ICS partners to explore joint workforce solutions that make better use of local skills?
What does ‘quality of employment’ look like in our organisation, and how does that affect care quality?
Are pay, pensions and terms competitive and fair?
How does employee experience influence attrition and reputation?
How do we measure and monitor staff satisfaction and intent to stay?
What Qualis Solutions can do
At Qualis, we help providers turn workforce data into action. Our support includes workforce audits and diagnostics, recruitment and retention strategy, and training pathway planning. We also work with organisations to redesign services, explore new staffing models and develop technology-enabled care options.
We assist in creating dashboards and early warning systems to monitor key workforce metrics, and provide change management support to help organisations become employers of choice. Every piece of this connects back to one goal: aligning workforce strategy with care strategy.
The latest Skills for Care report gives reason for cautious optimism. There’s growth in posts and a return to pre-pandemic vacancy levels, but many of the deeper pressures remain. For providers and commissioners, this is the time to move from reactive management to strategic planning; building workforce resilience rather than simply managing workforce risk.
At Qualis Solutions, our focus is on helping organisations turn these insights into sustainable change. We can work with you to strengthen your workforce, improve retention, and build services that are both resilient and attractive to the people who make them possible.
If these issues resonate with you, we’d be glad to start the conversation.
